What I find puzzling is that this guy is saying the pandemic will end be around the same date in 2021 with and without vaccination. But why would the pandemic end at all in 2021 without vaccination? Are we sure we will reach enough herd immunity "naturally" so that the pandemic stops?

Expand full comment

What I understand is that he says the pandemic/epidemic will end somewhere in 2021 because Covid19 will become endemic.

According to this article ( https://theconversation.com/covid-19-will-probably-become-endemic-heres-what-that-means-146435 ), endemic means R = 1 whereas epidemic means R>1.

See also: https://www.verywellhealth.com/what-is-an-endemic-disease-3132825

"Endemic diseases are often confused with epidemics. However, an epidemic refers to an outbreak of a disease. An epidemic occurs when a disease is spreading through one or more populations. In contrast, the endemic disease is one that is constantly present in a group or geographic area. Pandemics are worldwide epidemics. Under certain circumstances, an epidemic can lead to a disease becoming endemic."

And yes, he says that with or without vaccines Covid19 will become endemic in 2021. And that vaccines are useful to reduce mortality. And maybe to accelerate the "path to endemicity" by a few months?

So why will Covid become endemic in 2021 without vaccine? Maybe natural herd immunity as you say. I can't find data on the immunity by country. This website suggests about 20% of Americans are already immune: https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

Expand full comment