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US Election: What's Next?
When will Trump concede defeat?
Earlier today, news networks, including Fox News, called Joe Biden the winner of the US presidential election over President Trump. What’s next?
Here’s what should normally happen:
But Trump isn’t a normal president… Watch this video from 2016:
“I will totally accept the results of this great and historic presidential election… IF I WIN!” [October 2016]
After Biden was declared the winner, Trump stated that “this election [was] far from over.” Trump’s reaction is childish and even the People's Daily—the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party—is making fun of him:
But does Trump have any chance to win before courts?
To win the election, Trump needs Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia to go his way. Here’s where things stand there:
Pennsylvania: +37,469 votes for Biden; ~79,399 votes remaining to be counted,
Nevada: +25,699 votes for Biden; 113,398 votes remaining.
Arizona: +20,514 votes for Biden; ~131,489 votes remaining,
Georgia: +7,547 votes for Biden; unknown number of votes remaining.
Arizona may switch to Trump given the current trends. Georgia will recount because the race is tight. So Trump may be lucky and win Arizona and Georgia.
In Pennsylvania, the Supreme Court ordered boards of election to segregate mail-in ballots received after 8pm on Election Day. These ballots may be invalidated later, but there’s probably not enough of them to change the outcome.
Elsewhere, and especially in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan where races are close, the Trump campaign started lawsuits. Some have already been dismissed. Trump alleges irregularities and fraud but international observers from the OSCE “found no violations of the rules whatsoever.” So called evidence of fraud I saw online was total bullshit. With one exception: Biden's vote tallies violate Benford’s law in contested counties, which may constitute evidence of voter fraud. But apparently Benford's law can’t be used to detect election fraud. So those lawsuits will go nowhere.
Conclusion: there was no fraud and all his lawsuits won’t make Trump win. So when will Trump concede defeat?
According to bettors he won’t do so before November 17th. So he may just wait until the certification of results on December 8 to concede defeat. Even Murdoch’s NY Post is now telling Trump to “stop the ‘stolen election’ rhetoric”. It would be a ridiculous, but at least peaceful concession.
However, top Republicans are still behind him and his base is convinced that the election was stolen. His campaign keeps sending his supporters incendiary texts, telling them to rally and protest near polling places. (And among his supporters, some are crazy, such as the QAnon people. What if one of them attacked a polling station?!)
According to former Trump NSC spokesman the next step would be for “GOP officials in close states […] to refuse to seat Biden electors”. Each state must appoint its electors by December 8, the “safe harbor” deadline. According to The Atlantic: “The longer Trump succeeds in keeping the vote count in doubt, the more pressure legislators will feel to act before the safe-harbor deadline expires” and “to bypass election results and appoint loyal electors in battleground states where Republicans hold the legislative majority”.
So Trump’s best strategy is to discredit the results, fight long legal battles in key states, and build a grassroots movements in his favor to convince Republican legislatures to bypass election results by December 8. It’s unlikely to happen but he seems determined to try this strategy...
And anyway, he’s still President until January 20. According to the Los Angeles Times, he’ll fire his foes and proactively pardon his friends, family members, and himself! And in foreign affairs as he can do whatever he wants, the situation is even scarier…
An interesting few weeks ahead...
What do you think? When will he concede defeat?